“There’s an entire calculation behind it.” says an anonymous foreign Facebook user.
After multiple reports of an anonymous foreign man messaging woman repeatedly on Facebook, even after being ignored for months, Sauce Time sat down with the individual to get the real story behind why these messages are sent.
“The first message is more of a wild card. There’s no real equation at this point.” says the user. “I just see a girl I find attractive, and I send the first ‘Hey’.”
“After the first ‘Hey’, the math begins. Let me explain the formula.” The anonymous man proceeded to draw out his formula for Sauce Time and it looked like this.
PR = (1 – (M/(M+1000))) * (1 – (N/(N+50)))
Where: PR = Probability of reply, M = Minutes passed between message sent and message “seen”, and N = Number of “Hey”s sent.
So for example, if the foreign man has just sent his 3rd “Hey” to a girl and she reads the message in 50 minutes, the probability of reply would be determined by doing this:
PR = (1 – (50/(50+1000))) * (1 – (3/(3+50)))
PR = (0.9524) * (0.9434)
PR = 89.85%
The formula is built so that the more “Hey”s that are sent, and the more time that passes before the “Hey” is read, the less probable a reply will be.
When Sauce Time asked the foreign man if he had yet to receive a reply at all in any of his studies, he admitted he had not. Could the formula be inaccurate? Or could this just be bad luck? Let us know what you think!